Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. In the charts to the right we show two SGS-Alternate CPI estimates: One based on the pre-1990 official methodology for computing the CPI-U, and the other based on the methodology which was employed prior to 1980. Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . I also have, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. Unprecedented in 40-Plus Years of Weekly Monetary Reporting: Money Supply M1 Jumped by 14.1% in the Last Two Weeks, in a Post-Election / COVID-19 Flight to Cash, From M2 to M1 Money Supply. Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months. Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. "John Williams Shadow Government Statistics" is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months. What are Shadow's specs? Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. Shadow Government Statistics or Shadowstats is a blog run by John Williams in which he re-analyzes government economic /unemployment published statistics in order to restate them. As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. In summary, Shadow Stats constructed their alternative measure by taking a 5.1% difference between CPIU and CPIURS (the BLS's retroactive adjustment) and misinterpreted it as an ANNUAL difference when it was in fact a CUMULATIVE difference. Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. ShadowStats contends that it is the extraordinary liquidity surge after the February 2020 collapse that is driving the inflation, and which needs to be worked down in order to bring the inflation circumstance under control. We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. Congress keeps delaying U.S. Government Shutdowns, with continual increases in and extensions to the Debt Ceiling, amidst ongoing political games. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). From a revised -101.7 (previously -101.7) billion, from a revised -98.2 billion in December, its worst monthly showing since -112.4 billion in October 2022. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. A prospering shadow economy makes official statistics (on unemployment, official labor force, income, consumption) unreliable. Holding Physical Gold Protects the Purchasing Power of Dollar Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Volatility in, or Manipulation of, Gold Prices, October 2020 Cass Freight Index Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. EXPANDED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: - Intensifying Risks of a Highly Inflationary, Major U.S. Economic Downturn. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . ET, May 23, 2023. Primers & Reports. New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration Accordingly, comparative year-to-year change in the various March 2021 to March 2022 Money Supply measures against the heavily spiked year-ago activity tended to be depressed, against what otherwise would be the change versus the February 2020 Pre-Recession or Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), effectively the Base Circumstance, before the Pandemic emergency liquidity surge. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Your Shadow subscription. Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Here are the results. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. Separately, circumstances are exacerbated directly, at present, by spiking, weekly gasoline prices, as seen through the week of April 17th. Ongoing rate hikes at each of the last several FOMC Meetings to reduce inflation, remain counterproductive in the context of an already deepening Economic Recession and resurgent gasoline prices. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). [April 9th]. The original Money Supply measure, Basic M-1 is defined as Currency plus Demand Deposits (checking accounts). Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. The latest Economic and Inflation releases were covered earlier in the Opening Section of this DAILY UPDATE. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). March 2023 Money Supply activity reflected a continuing and intensifying 55-year record-high flight to liquidity in Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits), with Basic M1 notching higher to 35.0% of the aggregate headline Money Supply M2, its highest proportion since the same level in April 1970, a 53-year high. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. March 2023 Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization showed meaningful downside benchmark revisions to previously reported activity, but continued in a third month of upturn in context of Federal Reserve regular overestimation of headline Industrial Production. 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. ShadowStats will re-address these numbers at that time. December 2020 Cass Freight Index Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. Consider that where latest headline 4q2022 GDP was up by an increasingly tepid 0.88%, and by 5.04% against its Pre-Pandemic level, the ShadowStats Alternate was down by 1.16% (-1.16%) year-to year, and down by 1.22% (-1.33%) against its Pre-Pandemic level. Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary (I) - BOTTOM LINE COVERAGE: A ninth, consecutive FOMC Meeting Interest Rate hike is expected Wednesday, yet the U.S. Economy already is in intensifying Recession. While the now-broadest aggregate Money Supply M2 declined year-to-year by 4.1% (-4.1%) in March 2023, the highly liquid and inflation driving Basic M1 was up by 4.8% year-to-year. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory Data downloads and the Inflation Calculator are Subscriber only. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. MARCH 2023 FOMC (May 2023 FOMC coverage is pending May 3rd) - The Federal Reserves March 2023 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points [0.25%] for second period, largely as expected, slowed from the 0.50 basis point upside rate hike in December 2022, and the previous 0.75 basis point increments, to a new range of 4.75% to 5.00%. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. 1461. Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months Best Wishes -- John Williams. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. An old friendthe late-Doug Gillespieasked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Including Commercial Aircraft, aggregate New Orders recovered pre-Pandemic levels in Third-Quarter 2020. He received an A.B. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. (I) - BOTTOM LINE COVERAGE: A ninth, consecutive FOMC Meeting Interest Rate hike is expected Wednesday, yet the U.S. Economy already is in intensifying Recession. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. In Australia, unions are already demanding 3 per cent annual pay rises in wage negotiations, while Labor's shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers used Tuesday's data to highlight that inflation was. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .]. The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. That said, in Business Cycle definitions, an economic downturn traditionally has been known as a Depression, which has two components the Recession and the Recovery. After the economic terror of the Great Depression, economic downturns took on the less-frightening Recession nomenclature. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. Commentary No. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. Inflation remains elevated. Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 Accordingly, the April 2021 to January 2023 growth rates here generally are shown against that February 2020 PPT, instead of year-to-year. Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. A new analysis will follow with preliminary April 2023 numbers late this coming week. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. 1461] -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation Current employment/ economic conditions will be assessed and reviewed shortly in the pending No. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. (17) March 30th (Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA, See Note 2) -- Third and Final Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2022 (4q2022) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [The GDP Alternate Data Tab has been updated] - In continuing downside revision, the third-estimate of inflation-adjusted real 4q2022 GDP revised lower to an annualized quarter-to-quarter gain of 2.57%, in its third and final estimate, from its second estimate of 2.68%, and its initial estimate of 2.89%, versus 3.24% in 3q2022. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Unemployment. ET]. Using the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics used in the 1980s, John Williams, the founder of ShadowStats, determined that headline inflation should be much higher than 5.4%, the latest June release. Republishing our charts: Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking) April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section.
Moonshine Distillery And Supplies,
How To Print My Dental Assistant License,
3 Bedroom Flat To Rent South London,
Rendleman And Hileman,
Articles S